The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Iran’s Housing Investment by Using BVAR

Residential investment is the main component of investment and has a crucial rule in output and employment. The residential investment is affected by macroeconomic shocks. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the pace at which housing investment has responded to different macroeconomics shocks in Ian in the 1978- 2017 period by using the BVAR method. Four macroeconomic shocks are introduced to the model i.e. exchange rate, monetary, fiscal, and oil income shocks. The Sims-Zha (Normal-Wishart) was recolonized the most appropriate prior function for our data set. The Impulse response functions reveal that one standard deviation positive shocks to exchange rate, interest rate, government expenditure, and oil income initially increased housing investment and then gradually returned to its steady-state value. Oil price and monetary shocks had the shortest and longest duration impact on residential investment.  The highest volatility in residential investment created by the fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and oil income shocks respectively. The results indicate that the policymaker should consider the difference in the amount and duration of the impacts of four macroeconomic shocks on residential investment in the policymaking.